Who
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Study population: People aged ≥15 years diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in the USA.
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Data source: National TB Surveillance System (NTSS).
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Time period: 2011–2019.
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Key subgroups: Racially and ethnically minoritised populations (Black, Hispanic, Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native [AIAN], and other non-White groups).
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Exclusions: People incarcerated at TB diagnosis (3.9% of racially minoritised cases).
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Intervention-eligible groups: People born outside the USA, people living with HIV, and people experiencing homelessness.
What
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Objective: To estimate the health impact, cost, cost-effectiveness, and equity effects of a one-time targeted latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) testing and treatment intervention.
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Key findings:
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Targeting the top 5% of US counties with the highest TB risk among racially minoritised populations captured 47.4% of all TB cases.
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The intervention was estimated to avert:
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17,359 TB cases
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2,700 TB deaths
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14,951 QALYs gained over participants’ lifetimes.
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94.1% of people with LTBI in intervention counties were racially minoritised.
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The intervention reduced TB incidence across most racial and ethnic groups and modestly reduced racial and ethnic disparities, especially for Black people.
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Cost-effectiveness: $86,177 per QALY gained (2022 USD).
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When
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TB surveillance data: 2011–2019.
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Projection period for impact on incidence and disparities: 2026–2040.
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Post-2020 data excluded due to COVID-19–related disruptions in TB diagnosis.
Where
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Geographic scope: All 50 US states and the District of Columbia.
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Intervention focus: 157 counties (top 5% by a TB risk score combining TB incidence among racially minoritised people and their population share).
Why
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Rationale: TB incidence remains disproportionately high among racially and ethnically minoritised populations in the USA.
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Policy challenge: Current US guidelines do not allow LTBI testing to be restricted by race or ethnicity, necessitating a strategy that:
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Reduces disparities,
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Maximizes population health impact,
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Remains guideline-concordant and cost-effective.
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Goal: Inform resource allocation and decision making for TB elimination efforts.
How
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Design: Modeling study combining surveillance data, statistical smoothing, and economic simulation.
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Targeting approach:
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County-level targeting: Selected counties with highest TB burden among racially minoritised populations.
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Individual-level targeting: Offered LTBI testing to all people with guideline-recommended risk factors, regardless of race or ethnicity.
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LTBI estimation: Back-calculated from TB incidence using published reactivation rates and spatially smoothed generalized additive models.
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Intervention: Interferon gamma release assay testing, followed by 3 months of weekly isoniazid plus rifapentine.
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Analysis:
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Markov cohort model for lifetime health and economic outcomes.
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Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) estimated from a TB health services perspective.
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Quasi-Poisson models projected future TB incidence and disparities.
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Oversight: Analysis of de-identified surveillance data reviewed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, classified as research not involving human participants.
Overall conclusion
A geographically focused, guideline-concordant LTBI testing and treatment intervention could produce substantial health gains, be moderately cost-effective, and achieve small but meaningful reductions in racial and ethnic TB disparities, supporting its use as a strategic tool for TB elimination in the USA.
Source: Regan, M., Cui, H., Swartwood, N.A., Li, Y., Marks, S.M., Barham, T., Khan, A., Winston, C.A., Cohen, T., Horsburgh, C.R. and Salomon, J.A., 2026. The potential effect of a geographically focused intervention against tuberculosis in the USA: a simulation modelling study. The Lancet Public Health, 11(2), pp.e82-e91.