A longitudinal observational study developed and internally validated a prediction model for progression to active tuberculosis (TB) among close contacts of culture-confirmed pulmonary TB patients in the RePORT-Brazil cohort. The study enrolled participants between June 2015 and June 2019 across four cities in three Brazilian states (Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, and Amazonas) and followed contacts for 24 months. The objective was to identify predictors of progression from exposure or latent infection to active TB disease.
The study included 1,846 close contacts of 619 pulmonary TB index patients, with 86% completing at least 1.5 years of follow-up. Close contacts were defined as individuals exposed to a culture-positive pulmonary TB patient for at least 4 hours per week during the 6 months preceding diagnosis. At baseline, contacts underwent clinical evaluation, chest radiography, interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) testing, HIV testing, and collection of sociodemographic and clinical data. Contacts were eligible only if they were asymptomatic for TB at enrollment. Follow-up assessments occurred at 6 months in person and every 6 months thereafter by telephone, with clinical evaluation if symptoms developed. Progression to TB was defined by microbiological confirmation or clinical diagnosis. Thirty baseline variables were initially considered. Predictor selection involved empirical review followed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression with 5-fold cross-validation. Cox proportional hazards models were used after variable selection.
Among the 1,846 contacts, 25 (1.4%) developed TB within 24 months. Of these, 13 cases were microbiologically confirmed, 2 had histopathological evidence suggestive of TB, and 10 were clinically diagnosed; 75% had pulmonary TB. Baseline IGRA positivity was more common among progressors than non-progressors (75% vs 36.3%). The final prediction model identified three predictors of progression: tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT), smoking status, and baseline IGRA positivity.
Internal validation demonstrated good discrimination with an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.88). Contacts who never initiated TPT had substantially higher risk of developing TB than those who completed TPT (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 16.55, 95% CI 2.20-124.43). Among IGRA-positive contacts, TPT remained the only retained predictor, with an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.64-0.79); failure to start TPT was associated with increased TB risk (aHR 14.75, 95% CI 1.95-111.68). In the subgroup of IGRA-positive contacts who did not receive TPT or received it for less than 30 days, lower body mass index (BMI) emerged as an additional predictor. Each 1 kg/m² increase in BMI was associated with a 13% reduction in TB risk (aHR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.99). A BMI threshold of approximately 25 kg/m² was identified, with BMI <25 kg/m² associated with higher risk of progression (aHR 4.14, 95% CI 1.17-14.67). In this high-risk subgroup, TB incidence was 8.4% among those with BMI <25 kg/m² compared with 2.1% among those with BMI ≥25 kg/m².
The study concluded that lack of TPT, baseline IGRA positivity, smoking status, and lower BMI are important predictors of progression to active TB among close contacts of pulmonary TB patients. Completion of TPT appeared to be the strongest protective factor. Major limitations include the small number of TB progressors (25 events), which may have reduced statistical precision and increased uncertainty around effect estimates. Internal validation showed good model performance, but external validation in other populations is needed before broader implementation.
Source: Arriaga MB, Amorim G, Figueiredo MC, Staats C, Kritski AL, Cordeiro-Santo M, Rolla VC, Rebeiro PF, Andrade BB, Sterling TR. Body mass index and incident tuberculosis in close tuberculosis contacts. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2026 Jan 15;82(1):e100-9.