Tuberculosis in Brazil

A study analyzes tuberculosis incidence in Brazil from 2001 to 2022 and forecasts new cases until 2030, following the RECORD (Reporting of Studies Conducted Using Observational Routinely Collected Health Data) statement.

New tuberculosis cases recorded in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) between January 2001 and December 2022 were included. Cases were defined as individuals diagnosed via sputum smear microscopy, culture, or clinical assessment based on epidemiological and complementary examinations, provided they had never received tuberculosis treatment.

Population estimates for 2001–2030 were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Population projections and monthly tuberculosis cases were compiled into a dataset containing year, month, number of cases, and population size. Monthly incidence was calculated as cases per 100,000 inhabitants, ensuring a standardized metric over time. No data imputation was performed.

Among time series analysis methods, segmented regression was used to detect structural breaks, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to account for seasonal patterns, trends, and non-seasonal variations. Exploratory analysis identified trends and seasonality, with segmented regression detecting inflection points in trendlines.

A total of 1,956,616 tuberculosis cases were included, with monthly incidence ranging from 4.92 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (May 2002) to 3.01 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (February–March 2015).

If current trends persist, tuberculosis incidence is projected to rise, reaching levels similar to the early 2000s by 2030. The SARIMA model effectively estimated incidence, predicting 124,245 new cases in 2030, averaging over 10,000 cases per month, with a projected monthly incidence of 4.64 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. 

References:

1. Silva, M.T. and Galvão, T.F., 2024. Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030. Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, 27, p.e240027.