Thursday, April 9, 2026

Geospatial codistribution of TB and DM in Indonesia [TBN 065]


Who

  • Population: 514 districts in Indonesia

  • Data Source Population: ~345,000 households from 34,500 census blocks

  • Subgroups Identified:

    • Age ≥40 years (higher TB and DM prevalence)

    • Gender differences:

      • TB higher in males (0.38%) vs females (0.22%)

      • DM higher in females (2.85%) vs males (1.90%)

    • Higher-risk groups:

      • Urban residents

      • Lower education levels

      • Informal or non-working populations

  • Data Sources:

    • 2023 Indonesian Health Survey (SKI)

    • Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS)

    • Ministry of Health databases

    • Ministry of Home Affairs data


What

Study Focus

  • Mapping spatial distribution of:

    • Tuberculosis (TB)

    • Diabetes Mellitus (DM)

  • Identifying:

    • High-risk districts

    • Socio-demographic risk factors

    • Co-occurring TB-DM burden

Key Findings

  • National prevalence

    • TB: 0.30%

    • DM: 2.37%

  • Age ≥40 years

    • TB: 0.42%

    • DM: 4.37%

Socio-demographic Associations

TB

  • Poverty positively associated

    • β = 0.015 (95% CrI: 0.005–0.024)

  • Population density: positive but not significant

DM

  • Population density positively associated

    • β = 0.059 (95% CrI: 0.039–0.080)

  • Poverty negatively associated

    • β = −0.007 (95% CrI: −0.013 to −0.001)

Geographic Patterns

High TB prevalence

  • Papua (highest)

  • West Java

  • Banten

High DM prevalence

  • Central Java

  • East Java

  • Riau

  • Sumatra regions

High TB-DM overlap (62 districts >50% probability)

  • West Java

  • Banten

  • Aceh

  • East Kalimantan

  • Central Kalimantan

  • North Sulawesi

Authors' Conclusions

  • TB and DM co-burden shows distinct but overlapping spatial patterns

  • High-risk areas often:

    • Urban

    • High population density

    • Low-income settings

Policy Implications

  • Targeted geographic interventions recommended:

    • Integrated TB-DM screening

    • Strengthening primary care

    • Resource prioritization for high-burden districts

    • Improved referral pathways

    • Community health worker engagement


When

  • Data year: 2023 Indonesian Health Survey (SKI)

  • Study type: Cross-sectional spatial analysis

  • Follow-up: Not applicable (ecological cross-sectional)


Where

  • Country: Indonesia

  • Geographic unit: 514 districts

  • Settings:

    • National survey data

    • District-level socio-demographic indicators

    • Spatial modelling using district shapefiles


Why

  • TB and diabetes increasingly co-occur

  • Limited understanding of:

    • Spatial overlap

    • Shared risk factors

    • Geographic clustering

  • Objective:

    • Identify districts with dual burden

    • Inform targeted policy and healthcare planning


How

Study Design

  • Ecological spatial study

  • Cross-sectional national survey data

  • Level of Evidence:

    • Observational ecological modelling study

Methods

  • Bayesian Model-Based Geostatistics (MBG)

  • Binomial logistic regression

  • Fixed + random effects (BYM2 model)

Model Evaluation

  • Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)

  • WAIC

  • RMSE

  • Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

  • Fivefold cross-validation

Spatial Analysis

  • Quintile classification

  • Joint exceedance probability mapping

  • Residual spatial random effect mapping

Covariates Included

  • Population density

  • Poverty proportion

  • Hospital service ratio

  • Primary healthcare availability

Limitations (Implied / Reported)

  • Ecological design (district-level aggregation)

  • Non-public dataset access

  • Potential under-diagnosis in remote areas

  • Cross-sectional data limits causal inference


Strength of Evidence

  • Moderate (Ecological spatial modelling study)

  • Strong national dataset

  • No causal inference possible


Narrative Summary

This ecological spatial study analyzed data from 514 districts in Indonesia using the 2023 Indonesian Health Survey to examine the geographic distribution and co-occurrence of tuberculosis (0.30%) and diabetes mellitus (2.37%). Using Bayesian geostatistical modelling, the study identified significant associations between TB and poverty, and between DM and population density, with overlapping high-burden districts concentrated in West Java, Banten, Aceh, Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi. Approximately 62 districts showed high joint probability of TB-DM co-occurrence. Urban residence, lower education, and informal employment were associated with higher prevalence of both diseases. The findings highlight geographic clustering and emphasize the need for integrated TB-DM screening, targeted resource allocation, and strengthened primary healthcare in high-burden districts within Indonesia's decentralized health system.


Source: Dwinata I, Tsheten T, Ansariadi A, Wagnew F, Alene KA, Sutarsa IN, Moraga P, Putra IW, Kelly M. Geospatial codistribution of tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus in Indonesia. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 2026 Mar 30;15(1):37.

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Geospatial codistribution of TB and DM in Indonesia [TBN 065]

Who Population: 514 districts in Indonesia Data Source Population: ~345,000 households from 34,500 census blocks Subgroups Identified: Age...