Tuberculosis in Kazakhstan

Tuberculosis Incidence in Kazakhstan (2000–2023): A 24-Year Analysis

The research covers a 24-year period from 2000 to 2023. Data for the study were sourced from the World Health Organization and national statistics from the Republic of Kazakhstan, with a focus on tuberculosis (TB) incidence by place of residence and regional distribution. The geometric mean was used to calculate the average annual rate of increase or decrease.

Over this period, more than 357,000 newly diagnosed TB cases were recorded in Kazakhstan. The number of new cases declined from 22,700 in 2000 to 6,800 in 2023.

In urban areas, TB incidence dropped from 166.3 per 100,000 population in 2000 to 33.9 per 100,000 in 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 100.8 per 100,000. In rural areas, the rate decreased from 136.7 to 36.0 per 100,000, with an average annual incidence rate of 83.1 per 100,000. The average annual number of patients was 14,885 ± 1,333.7. Overall, the national incidence rate fell from 153.2 to 34.7 per 100,000 population.

Significant regional disparities were observed. In 2000, the highest incidence rates per 100,000 population were reported in Kyzylorda (303.3), Mangystau (259.0), Aktobe (231.6), and Pavlodar (201.1) regions. Almaty city had the lowest rate at 72.8.

By 2023, Almaty city continued to report the lowest rate (19.8), while the highest rates were observed in Kyzylorda (42.5) and Atyrau (42.1) regions. The most substantial reductions in TB incidence were recorded in Mangystau (-89.4%), Shymkent (-81.6%), Pavlodar (-81.6%), Kyzylorda (-86.0%), and Aktobe (-86.5%). The smallest declines occurred in East Kazakhstan (-69.2%) and Almaty region (-71.7%). Nationally, TB incidence declined by approximately 80%.

However, in the past two years, slight increases were noted in Kyzylorda (from 42.3 to 42.5 per 100,000) and North Kazakhstan (from 37.5 to 39.1 per 100,000), indicating the need for strengthened TB control measures in these areas. Urban centers such as Almaty and Shymkent reported lower TB rates, likely due to improved healthcare access and infrastructure.

Source: Kulmirzayeva, D., Prabakaran, I. and Javaid, M., 2025. Retrospective analysis of tuberculosis incidence in Kazakhstan for 2000-2023. Journal of Health Development, 60(1), pp.17-23.